Fertility Decline and Teacher Surplus: An Upcoming Challenge in China
Abstract
A major demographic transformation in China, marked by declining fertility rates, is anticipated to deeply impact the educational field. With the reduction in student registrations owing to declining birth rates, there’s a probable decrease in teacher demand, possibly resulting in a surplus of teachers. The study delves into the link between rdeclining fertility rates and teacher surplus, investigates the possible effects of an excess in the teaching staff, and deliberates on policy measures to lessen adverse effects. This research seeks to shed light on China’s response to a rising challenge by examining demographic patterns, educational workforce strategies, and governmental actions, aiming to maintain a sustainable equilibrium between teacher availability and demand.
References
[1] Adeyemi, T. (2011). Teacher shortages and surpluses in senior secondary schools in Ondo State, Nigeria: A critical review. American Journal of Social and Management Sciences, 2(3), 304–315.
[2] Ahmed, S. A., Cruz, M., Quillan, B., & Schellekens, P. (2016). Demographic Change and Development: Looking at Challenges and
Opportunities through a New Typology.
[3] Cai, Y., & Feng, W. (2021). The social and sociological consequences of China’s one-child policy. Annual Review of Sociology, 47,
587-606.
[4] Chen, Y., & Fang, H. (2018). The Long-Term Consequences of Having Fewer
Children in Old Age: Evidence from China’s “Later, Longer, Fewer” Campaign. NBER Working Papers 25041, National Bureau of
Economic Research, Inc.
[5] Chu, Z. (n.d.). China population: teachers face uncertain future with falling birth rate set to create 1.9 million surplus by 2035.
South China Morning Post.
[6] Fang, H., Eggleston, K. N., Rizzo, J. A., & Zeckhauser, R. J. (2013). Jobs and kids: Female employment and fertility in rural China.
IZA Journal of Labor & Development,2( 1), 1-25.
[7] Feng Hongrong. (2023,July 12). Adapting to demographic changes and optimizing the allocation of educational resources. People ‘s
Daily Education Channel.http://edu.people.com.cn/n1/2023/0712/c1006-40034086.html
[8] Götmark, F., & Andersson, M. (2020). Human fertility in relation to education, economy, religion, contraception, and family planning programs. BMC Public Health, 20, 1-17.
[9] He, Z. (2023). Problems of Unbalanced Teacher Quantity and Quality and Countermeasures. International Journal of
Education and Humanities, 9(3), 44-50.
[10] Huang, J., Qin, D., Jiang, T., Wang, Y., Feng, Z., Zhai, J., Cao, L., Chao, Q., Xu, X., Wang, G., & Su, B. (2019). Effect of
fertility policy changes on the population structure and economy of China: From the perspective of the shared socioeconomic pathways.
Earth’s Future, 7(3), 250–265.
[11] Hung, C. L. (2011). Coping strategies of primary school teachers in Taiwan experiencing stress because of teacher surplus. Social Behavior and Personality: an international journal, 39(9), 1161-1173.
[12] Ministry of Education of the People’s Republic of China. (2024, March 1). Basic Conditions of National Education Development
in 2023 ([Webpage ID number]). http://www.moe.gov.cn/fbh/live/2024/55831/sfcl/202403/t20240 301_1117517.htm
[13] Ogunjobi, A. O., Akinwumi, I. O., Ojo, A. A., & Olofin, S. O. (2023). Impact of ICT and class size on academic performance
of secondary school students in science subject in Ekiti State. International Journal of Vocational and Technical Education Research, 9(3),
35–44.https://doi.org/10.37745/ijvter.15/vol9n33544
[14] Qiao, J. Z., Shen, J. X., Li, H. D., & Zhong, B. L. (2021). Astudy on the alocation of resources in compulsory education in Chinafrom2020to 2035. Journal of East China Normal University(Educational Sciences), 39( 12), 59.
[15] Raute, A. (2019). Can financial incentives reduce the baby gap? Evidence from a reform in maternity leave benefits. Journal of
Public Economics, 169, 203-222.
[16] Shaturaev, J. (2021). Indigent condition in education and low academic outcomes in public education system of Indonesia and
Uzbekistan. Архив научных исследований, 1( 1).
[17] Qiao, J. (n.d.). China population: with falling fertility rate ‘an unavoidable norm’, Beijing told focus should shift to people not
numbers. South China Morning Post.
[18] Wang, L., & Calvano, L. (2022). Class size, student behaviors and educational outcomes. Organization Management Journal,
19(4), 126–142.https://doi.org/10.1108/omj-01-2021-1139
[19] Wang, S., Liu, S., Wu, S. (2023). Research on the Dynamic Adjustment Mechanism of Authorized Staff Size System for Compulsory Education Teachers under the Background of Population Change. Teacher Education Research, 35(6).
[20] Wang, F.(2024-01-19). Teachers are no longer the “iron rice bowl” Withdrawal mechanism and teacher surplus cause controversy. 21st Century Business Herald,006.
[21] Yang, N.,Zhou, J.,&Wang, L.,(2023).Survey report of birth intention of 1944 residents in Changzhou under the background of
“three-child” policy. Health medicine research and practice(11),23-28. doi:CNKI:SUN:GXBJ.0.2023-11-004.