The impact of international financial crisis and the effect of China's macro policy response - based on an open economy DSGE - VAR Model

Abstract

leverages an open economy DSGE - VAR The model simulates and calculates the effects of the international financial crisis on China's economy and its transmission channels " , and U.S. quantitative easing monetary policy spillover effects on China's economy ; and discuss China's monetary and fiscal policies in this framework anti- effect , identifies the long-term factors that cause China's economic fluctuations . The results of the study show that , first , Exchange channels and trade channels are the main channels for international finance The The crisis has an impact on China , US quantitative easing policy has a significant negative effect on China's economy . second , China government the Monetary and fiscal policy actions taken by the Government in response to the international financial crisis are timely and effective , Although the side effects are great ; without these stimulus policy , China's real output in 2009 Year will drop 5 percent , Exports will also drop significantly . third ,Consumer preference Impact , investment flush Click , Import price index impact , the main reason for China's macroeconomic fluctuation is the impact of interest rate shocks and foreign economic fluctuations .