Research on Expected Return Based on Time Series Model: Taking Kweichow Moutai Co., Ltd. as an Example
Abstract
With the stable development of China's economy, the economic activities among enterprises are more diversified, and the enterprise value evaluation index system is more perfect. As an important parameter in the enterprise value evaluation index, the expected income can be used to measure the profit quality of the enterprise. In order to explore the expected return of enterprises, this paper selects free cash flow as the specific index, and takes Kweichow moutai Co., Ltd. as an example, analyzes the earnings trend of enterprises through the method of time series. Time series prediction models are constructed to provide the basis for enterprise value evaluation. At the same time, by fitting single linear regression model and Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average model, the free cash flow is predicted, and finally the ARIMA (1,2,2) model is obtained. The results show that the single linear regression model has a higher error rate, while ARIMA (1,2,2) has a better fitting degree and a lower error rate. It can be used for the results of expected earnings of enterprises and provides a reference for enterprise value evaluation.
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